Almost two weeks have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, and so far, Russia has achieved limited success in southern Ukraine. However, Russia has suffered significant losses in the north and east, and its offensive has stalled.
The Western countries have responded to the invasion with tough sanctions that threaten to pull the rug out from under the Russian economy. The NATO and EU member states have provided arms assistance to Ukraine. Those weapons are suitable for both regular and guerrilla warfare.
Authorities in Russia have tightened controls, forcing several of the country’s last free media outlets to cease operations. State media are waging a fierce propaganda campaign to convince the public that the so-called “special military operation” is going according to plan and that Russian soldiers are welcome in Ukraine.
Still, a substantial portion of Russians are unhappy. More than 4,000 people were arrested Sunday, demonstrating against the war in several Russian cities. But the big question is how Russia’s increasingly authoritarian president and his inner circle will respond to the backlash. Here are seven possible scenarios for how the Ukraine war will continue.
If the West imposes new sanctions to resolve the conflict in a civilized manner and China supports this, this could force Russia to cease hostilities. The Russian political system would continue, but its economy would freeze.
If this occurs, the supply of raw materials will likely cease, creating disruptions and hindering trade. It also will pose a challenge to the growth of the global economy, which may slow or stop altogether. Russia will enter a systemic financial and economic decline, leading to a new refugee crisis in Europe. Europe will also have to adjust to a new military doctrine.
Energy market pressures will continue, and the financial markets will be in uncharted waters due to systemic instability and the unpredictability of Russian markets. Investors will be looking for high-quality, time-tested investment instruments that offer them security in their portfolios. Also, alternate payments such as cryptocurrencies may see new success as they benefit from the decoupling of some banks from the SWIFT system.