Prediction market operator Kalshi fired off a cease-and-desist letter to Netflix on Friday, demanding the streamer pull a trailer for its upcoming documentary “The Prediction Games” and threatening a defamation lawsuit over what it calls fabricated footage. The letter, obtained by CNN, called on Netflix to immediately remove the trailer and issue a public retraction, arguing the video falsely implies users placed sports-event trades on Kalshi’s platform in Nevada in violation of a court order.
Netflix released the trailer Thursday to promote the documentary, set to premiere Sunday, and the footage shows traders celebrating winnings at a Las Vegas mansion while watching the World Cup final. Kalshi is currently barred from operating sports-related markets in Nevada under a court order tied to a lawsuit brought by the state’s Gaming Commission, and the company says it is complying.
Its lawyers argue the trailer creates the false impression that the company is flouting that order. Netflix pushed back, telling CNN that the most prominent trade shown in the footage was placed in 2025, well before any restriction took effect, even though the celebration itself was filmed last weekend.
The dispute carries an added wrinkle: Kalshi worked with the filmmakers before turning on them. The documentary includes an interview with Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour alongside the CEO of rival platform Polymarket, which declined to comment on the current fight. Kalshi’s head of marketing, Brandon Beckhardt, said in a statement that Netflix “had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary” but instead produced “a sensationalized film built on fiction.”
The clash lands amid explosive growth for an industry still fighting to define its own legal status. Prediction markets let users wager on outcomes ranging from sports and elections to award shows and weather, and trading volume has surged into the billions of dollars weekly this year.
Kalshi alone reported nearly $1.9 billion in trades tied to the World Cup final. Kalshi and Polymarket maintain they operate as regulated commodity exchanges rather than gambling platforms, a classification more than 40 states have challenged, arguing the companies are running unlicensed casinos. Netflix had not pulled the trailer as of Friday.
