“Sentimental Value” Joins “It Was Just an Accident” at Front of 2026 Oscar Race

Oscar handicappers wasted no time drawing lines from the Croisette to next year’s Academy ballots after Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi captured the Palme d’Or on 24 May for “It Was Just an Accident.” The revenge thriller, acquired for North America by Neon midway through the festival, arrives with unusually potent pedigree: four of the past five Palme winners have reached the best-picture lineup, and Neon distributed each one.

Yet awards strategists note a complication. To compete in international feature a film must screen in its home country, something Panahi’s work cannot do without Iranian state approval. The BBC reported that the requirement makes an official submission “unlikely,” though the picture remains eligible in every other Oscar category. “It will have to run the same gauntlet ‘Parasite’ did—just without the safety net of that automatic slot,” said publicist Maya Rosenthal, who has shepherded past foreign-language contenders. Neon is expected to schedule a U.S. release before year-end to build momentum with guild voters.

The Grand Prix winner, Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” may face fewer hurdles. The Norwegian family drama drew a 19-minute ovation and immediate framing as a best-picture candidate by awards site Awards Daily, whose editor called it “Neon’s next ace in the hole”. Trier’s previous film, “The Worst Person in the World,” landed screenplay and acting nominations in 2022, giving the director an existing Academy profile.

Analysts also point to Brazil’s “The Secret Agent,” which earned best director and best actor at Cannes, as a plausible international-feature submission now that the country has returned to an official selection committee after a two-year hiatus. Meanwhile, Óliver Laxe’s desert saga “Sirât,” co-winner of the Jury Prize, has already secured multi-territory deals, ensuring visibility across the autumn festival circuit—a key factor in recent Oscar campaigns.

With Toronto, Telluride and New York still to come, studios are mapping rollout strategies. But the early field is clear: Neon once again controls the festival’s two most talked-about titles, and Panahi’s first unrestricted journey outside Iran has positioned his film as both a political flashpoint and a dark-horse best-picture hope—even if another country must wave the international-feature flag.