Almost two weeks have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, and so far, Russia has achieved limited success in southern Ukraine. However, Russia has suffered significant losses in the north and east, and its offensive has stalled.
The Western countries have responded to the invasion with tough sanctions that threaten to pull the rug out from under the Russian economy. The NATO and EU member states have provided arms assistance to Ukraine. Those weapons are suitable for both regular and guerrilla warfare.
Authorities in Russia have tightened controls, forcing several of the country’s last free media outlets to cease operations. State media are waging a fierce propaganda campaign to convince the public that the so-called “special military operation” is going according to plan and that Russian soldiers are welcome in Ukraine.
Still, a substantial portion of Russians are unhappy. More than 4,000 people were arrested Sunday, demonstrating against the war in several Russian cities. But the big question is how Russia’s increasingly authoritarian president and his inner circle will respond to the backlash. Here are seven possible scenarios for how the Ukraine war will continue.
When the situation becomes untenable for Russia, Putin and his closest advisers may back down rather than risk their position of power. But the big question is how this can happen without the Russian president losing face and admitting defeat.
So far, that possibility also seems remote since Russia has shown no signs of backing down from its pre-invasion demands. Nor are the West and Ukraine likely to agree to a solution that could be interpreted as if Russia had won by invading its neighbor.
A further unclear question is what exactly the West is asking Russia to do in exchange for easing sanctions. If there’s no clear way out of the sanctions, there is no real reason for Russia to back down – but, by the same token, nobody in the West trusts Putin’s word anymore.