Almost two weeks have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, and so far, Russia has achieved limited success in southern Ukraine. However, Russia has suffered significant losses in the north and east, and its offensive has stalled.
The Western countries have responded to the invasion with tough sanctions that threaten to pull the rug out from under the Russian economy. The NATO and EU member states have provided arms assistance to Ukraine. Those weapons are suitable for both regular and guerrilla warfare.
Authorities in Russia have tightened controls, forcing several of the country’s last free media outlets to cease operations. State media are waging a fierce propaganda campaign to convince the public that the so-called “special military operation” is going according to plan and that Russian soldiers are welcome in Ukraine.
Still, a substantial portion of Russians are unhappy. More than 4,000 people were arrested Sunday, demonstrating against the war in several Russian cities. But the big question is how Russia’s increasingly authoritarian president and his inner circle will respond to the backlash. Here are seven possible scenarios for how the Ukraine war will continue.
Since Russia has deployed most of its forces and, by all appearances, is bogged down in several areas, President Putin and his inner circle may prefer to escalate the conflict rather than admit defeat. Perhaps the most likely escalation is for Russia to persuade or force Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to send his military across the border.
So far, the Belarus military has stayed out of the war. Unconfirmed reports suggest that this is at least partly because there is a risk that a large proportion of soldiers and junior officers would refuse or even switch sides.
However, if the need for reinforcements increases, Lukashenko might be forced to take the risk anyway. In this case, the war would quickly turn into a regional conflict.
A worse scenario would be for NATO to be drawn into the conflict in one way or another. Both Russia and the U.S. have opened a so-called hotline between their forces to prevent this from happening due to mistakes or misinterpretations. Yet, the security situation in Europe is extremely tense, so a significant war, unfortunately, cannot be completely ruled out.
It is also unclear what Putin will do if it turns out that the war in Ukraine has failed and the Russian economy cannot cope with the sanctions imposed by the West. For years, Mr Putin’s strategy has been to try to force the West to de-escalate through escalation. But now, this approach is no longer working.