Disney’s live-action “Moana” heads into its opening weekend tracking for roughly $130 million in global ticket sales, a number the studio will take but one that falls well short of expectations set just weeks ago. The remake, starring Dwayne Johnson as Maui and newcomer Catherine Laga’aia in the title role, is projected to earn $60 million to $65 million domestically over three days and another $70 million to $75 million internationally during its five-day debut, which opens in most overseas markets Wednesday.
That trajectory represents a steep comedown from June estimates, when trackers had the film pacing toward an $85 million domestic opening. Some independent forecasters pushed projections even lower in recent days, with one tracking account warning the film could struggle to clear $60 million domestically against a reported production budget north of $200 million. The wide spread between bullish and bearish estimates, at times nearly $50 million apart, has itself become part of the story heading into release.
Context matters here. The film arrives in a summer that has already delivered two high-profile disappointments, with Warner Bros.’ “Supergirl” and Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters” both opening beneath expectations. “Moana” also follows a difficult template within Disney’s own remake catalog: 2023’s “The Little Mermaid” opened to roughly $95 million domestically before fading, while “Snow White” undercut its own modest $50 million forecast earlier this year. By contrast, this year’s “Lilo & Stitch” remake opened above $145 million, showing audiences will still turn out for the right property.
The pressure on “Moana” is heightened by what preceded it. The animated “Moana 2,” released in November 2024 after Disney converted a planned streaming series into a theatrical sequel, set a Thanksgiving record with a $225.4 million five-day domestic haul and crossed $1 billion worldwide. The original 2016 “Moana” opened more modestly at $82 million over five days before becoming one of Disney+’s most-watched films, logging roughly 1.5 billion streaming hours since the service launched.
Despite the softer forecast, box office analysts see little cause for alarm industry-wide. Domestic ticket sales are running about 13 percent ahead of last year and are on pace to cross $5 billion, with summer receipts up 12 percent over the same period in 2025. Upcoming releases including “The Odyssey” and “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” are expected to keep that momentum going. Johnson, for his part, has said conversations about a third “Moana” film are already underway, with Jared Bush and Dana Ledoux Miller attached to write.
