The 2025 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards turned the race for the Oscars upside down, with unexpected results that have left Hollywood buzzing. While the ballots for the Academy Awards were already submitted, the SAG outcomes, announced Sunday night, highlighted the unpredictability of this year’s race. The evening saw surprising wins that could have major implications for the Oscars, especially in the best picture and acting categories.
In one of the night’s biggest surprises, Conclave, a drama about a Vatican conclave, won the coveted Outstanding Cast Award, beating out heavyweights like Anora and Wicked. Anora, which had been a frontrunner throughout the season after major victories at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild, Critics Choice, and Spirit Awards, was expected to claim the ensemble prize. But Conclave, despite its snub in the Best Director category at the Oscars, triumphed, signaling widespread support for the film from SAG members.
The film’s win at the SAG Awards comes on the heels of its Best Film victory at the BAFTAs, and it now heads to the Oscars with a unique position. While Conclave’s omission from the Best Director race could hurt its chances for Best Picture, its ensemble win places it in strong contention. History shows that a number of past films — such as Argo in 2012 — have managed to take home the top Oscar prize despite lacking a Best Director nomination. The win could also make Conclave a strong contender for the Academy’s preferential ballot, a key factor in the Best Picture race.
Timothée Chalamet claimed the Outstanding Lead Actor prize for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, besting Adrien Brody, who had previously taken home the trophy at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA Awards for his role in The Brutalist. Chalamet’s SAG victory marks his first major award of the season, possibly positioning him as a contender for the Academy Award, particularly given his film’s broader appeal compared to Brody’s more niche, art-house performance.
Demi Moore’s victory in the Outstanding Lead Actress category added another twist to the race. The Substance star secured the SAG Award over Anora’s Mikey Madison, who had dominated the recent BAFTA and Spirit Awards. Moore’s win is significant, as it is the first major acting award from a guild or critics group to go in her favor, providing her with a boost just ahead of the Oscars. However, Madison’s momentum in recent weeks, coupled with the unpredictable rise of Fernanda Torres’ I’m Still Here, means the race for Best Actress is still tight.
Despite its earlier dominance in the season, Anora was shut out at the SAG Awards, a blow to its Oscar prospects. The film had been the subject of much buzz after its success at several other major precursor ceremonies, but SAG voters clearly weren’t as enthused. The film’s lack of support from the actors’ branch — the largest group within the Academy — could hurt its chances, especially in a year where the Best Picture category is still anyone’s game.
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In the supporting categories, the SAG Awards followed the trends set by other major awards, with Kieran Culkin winning Outstanding Supporting Actor for his role in A Real Pain and Zoe Saldaña claiming the award for Outstanding Supporting Actress for her role in Emilia Pérez. Both actors have been favorites in these categories for months, and their SAG victories suggest they are all but assured of winning the Oscar in a week’s time.
Though the SAG results cannot alter the outcome of the Oscars — as voting has already concluded — they provide an interesting look at the shifting momentum in several key races. While Conclave’s surprise win in the ensemble category indicates a strong following, Anora’s lack of recognition at SAG raises doubts about its dominance in the Best Picture race. With the acting categories still in flux, the SAG Awards have set the stage for a much-anticipated Oscar night, where any number of outcomes seem plausible.
