Warner Bros. and DC’s “Clayface” faces a tougher fight for the top spot at this weekend’s box office than anyone expected, and the threat comes from a three-hour documentary about Elizabeth Holmes.
A24’s “You Can See Everything” opened to $15.8 million from 855 theaters, the biggest documentary debut in 22 years, and has reached $20.8 million after a $2.6 million Tuesday. It expands to roughly 2,600 locations Friday. Projections call for a second weekend of at least $18 million, which would make it the first documentary since 2018 to pass $30 million in two weekends.
Forecasts for “Clayface” run wide. Boxoffice Pro’s tracking spans $23 million to $33 million, and most industry estimates cluster between $25 million and $30 million. One analyst reading ticket presales sees a debut below $20 million, with sales 80 percent behind “Supergirl” at the same stage. That film opened to $38 million in June.
Survey data offers a counterweight. Only 32 percent of moviegoers knew “Clayface” existed, but 21 percent of that group planned to buy a ticket opening weekend, nearly double the typical rate. Critics lean favorable, with a 74 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from 56 reviews.
The $40 million R-rated body horror film, written by Mike Flanagan and directed by James Watkins, stars Tom Rhys Harries as Matt Hagen, an actor whose ruined face drives him to a scientist played by Naomi Ackie. It is the first Warner Bros. release under Skydance ownership, arriving after costly misses including “Supergirl,” “Practical Magic 2” and “Digger.” It is also the last DC film until “Man of Tomorrow” next July.
Precedent favors the documentary’s momentum. “Borat” opened to $26.8 million from 837 screens in 2006, took $28.2 million in its second weekend on 2,566 screens and finished with $128.5 million domestically. “You Can See Everything” is unlikely to match that total, yet the comparison explains why a stronger second weekend looks nearly certain.
The two films still share an audience comfortably. The documentary is a deliberately uncomfortable watch, and horror fans looking for a pre-Halloween outing have few alternatives. Laika’s “Wildwood,” which holds a 100 percent critics’ score, also goes wide with a projected $6 million to $8 million.
